The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

An escape fire is a technique used by firefighters in the wild. It refers to the practice of setting a fire amidst a wildfire, creating a safe, burned spot that can halt the wildfire’s advance by leaving it no fuel to burn. During the Mann Gulch fire, Wag Dodge invented the practice, and it saved his life. Carter Mecher later views the technique of escape fire as analogous to many of the prophylactic measures that the Wolverines recommended during the pandemic.

The Mann Gulch fire started in Montana on August 5, 1949. The wildfire consumed thousands of acres within 10 minutes and quickly surrounded the smokejumpers that had dropped by airplane to fight the fire. The spread of the fire proved too aggressive and unpredictable, and most of the smokejumpers died. Wag Dodge, the foreman, escaped by improvising an escape fire. Throughout The Premonition, Carter Mecher sees analogies between the spread of the Mann Gulch fire and the COVID-19 pandemic.

When Charity Dean is 24 years old, she rents an apartment. Wanting to prove that she takes pride in her home, she puts an impressive flower display on her porch. The neighbors compliment her display, and she feels proud of her initiative. When the flowers die, she doesn’t know why. Rather than replace them with live flowers, she puts lifelike, plastic flowers on her porch. She waters the fake flowers, pretending, rather than admit to the neighbors that her flowers died. Watering plastic flowers becomes a metaphor in The Premonition for organizations like the CDC: They pretend to do something while knowing that they’re ineffective.

Prophylaxis refers to any measures to halt the spread of a disease. Social distancing, the use of masks, sanitation, and school closures are all examples of prophylaxis that The Pandemic mentions.

The Red Phone is Joe DeRisi’s phone at his lab. People call it to find answers that they can’t get elsewhere. The Red Phone is a symbol of hope, but it can also serve as a metaphor for alarm. By the time someone calls the Red Phone, it’s often too late for DeRisi to help.

Social distancing is the concept of inserting space between people during a pandemic. In The Premonition, the concept begins with Laura Glass, Bob Glass’s daughter, whose science fair project shows the potential of social distancing as a pandemic measure.

The Swine Flu Affair is a book by Richard Neustadt. It focuses on the 1970s threat of a swine flu pandemic and the response of David Sencer, who was the director of the CDC at the time. Sencer led a massive campaign for vaccines when it looked like the swine flu had the potential for massive casualties. When the pandemic didn’t materialize—and when several people died from their reactions to the vaccines—Sencer’s career ended. The Swine Flu Affair becomes a cautionary tale to any officials who risk their public standing by making an unpopular decision whose outcome is uncertain.